Here are among the doable situations that the Bihar chief minister could discover himself coping with sooner or later
The Bharatiya Janata Party on Tuesday despatched a message by proclaiming, but once more, Nitish Kumar as the chief of the NDA in ballot-certain Bihar. This was after Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) introduced that it’ll not contest the state elections together with the JD(U).
While it stays to be seen whether or not the BJP continues to again Nitish after the ballot numbers are out, the LJP’s choice actually opens up a number of attention-grabbing potentialities. Here are among the doable situations that the Bihar chief minister could discover himself coping with sooner or later:
What works in JD(U)’s favour
For now, Nitish is probably going to attract some reassurance from the BJP’s stance. On Tuesday, BJP chief Sushil Kumar Modi emphatically stated at a press convention, “Please rest assured. Nitish Kumar will be our chief minister irrespective of which party gets how many seats”
Also, Nitish is by far the most well-liked chief ministerial candidate in Bihar, if opinion polls are any indication. According to a CVoter opinion poll, 30.three p.c respondents need Nitish as the chief minister, as in comparison with Tejashwi Yadav, who’s favoured by simply 15.four p.c of the respondents.
The pollster has additionally predicted that the NDA could win a majority within the election, profitable 141-161 seats as in comparison with 64-84 for the UPA.
The NDA did extraordinarily effectively within the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, profitable 39 out of 40 seats. If the JD(U)-BJP alliance sticks collectively within the coming days, Nitish could profit from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reputation.
According to a different CVoter survey, 48.eight p.c of the respondents categorised Modi’s efficiency as ‘good’, whereas solely 29.2 p.c believed that his efficiency was ‘poor.’
What JD(U) can be cautious of
While the BJP has repeatedly acknowledged that Nitish is the face of the coalition, the JD(U) can be effectively conscious that these statements imply little within the mild of rising political developments.
An occasion of this was seen in Maharashtra final 12 months. The BJP and Shiv Sena had contested the election in an alliance, but the Shiv Sena later broke away and shaped a authorities with the NCP and Congress.
After the BJP briefly shaped a authorities in alliance with NCP chief Ajit Pawar, former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis was additionally trolled over his old statement that the BJP would “never, never, never” have any alliance with the NCP.
In the Bihar election, if the BJP wins extra seats than the JD(U), then the latter social gathering could effectively be in bother. As an article in NDTV notes, the LJP could stage ‘pleasant fights’ in a number of seats by placing up candidates who could not win the election but can eat into the vote share of the JD(U).
Under the seat-sharing agreement, the JD(U) has received 122 seats whereas the BJP has received 121 seats. The JD(U) has put aside seven seats for the Hindustani Awam Morcha, whereas the BJP will accommodate the brand new entrant Vikassheel Insaan Party.
Depending on the variety of seats the BJP allots to VIP, the BJP could successfully contest in additional seats than the JD(U).
Another fear for the JD(U) is anti-incumbency.
According to the CVoter survey, Nitish is going through huge anti-incumbency: maybe for the primary time since he was sworn in as chief minister fifteen years in the past. As many as 56.7 p.c of the respondents stated that they’re sad with him and need change. Further, 45.three p.c of the folks surveyed rated his efficiency as ‘poor.’
In this backdrop, if the BJP steals a march over the JD(U), Nitish could be in for powerful days forward.
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