An incoming extreme cyclone growing over the nice and cozy Arabian Sea waters and coinciding with the onset section of the monsoon, may trigger a storm surge of as much as seven ft in peak, above astronomical tide, inundating low-lying areas in Mumbai, Thane, and Raigad districts; and as much as three ft in peak in Ratnagiri

This (Tuesday) morning, a contributing deep despair lay centred 280 km West-South-West of Panjim; 490 km South-South-West of Mumbai; and 710 km South-South-West of Surat (Gujarat). It would intensify right into a cyclone by this night and additional as a extreme cyclone by tomorrow (Wednesday).

Landfall tomorrow night

The deep despair would transfer almost northwards this afternoon and shift proper (North-North-East) in direction of the West Coast as a cyclone and cross the North Maharashtra and adjoining South Gujarat coasts between Harihareshwar (Raigad) and Daman as a extreme cyclone tomorrow night, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated within the morning.

The IMD didn’t point out an actual landfall level, however in response to Jason Nicholls, Lead International Forecaster of US-based company Accuweather, if it had been to hit Mumbai, it could be the primary June cyclone to hit the metropolis since 1891. The final cyclone to barrel into the North Maharashtra coast was Phyan on November 11, 2009.

Heavy rainfall forecast

In an replace to yesterday’s forecast, the IMD stated the extreme cyclone might weaken to a deep despair (not as cyclone as initially estimated) by early Thursday morning. Isolated heavy falls have been forecast for Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada till tomorrow morning.

Heavy to very heavy falls are doubtless at a number of locations and intensely heavy falls at remoted locations over North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra, South Gujarat, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli tomorrow. Heavy to very heavy falls are forecast over Marathawada and South-West Madhya Pradesh; and heavy over West Vidarbha. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are doubtless over Konkan & Goa, North Madhya Maharashtra, South Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh.

Damage potential

The IMD warned that top winds related to the extreme cyclone may trigger main injury to thatched homes/ huts, blowing away rooftops and inflicting unfastened steel sheets to fly. Power and communication traces may snap, kutcha in addition to pucca roads may get broken.

Tree branches might break free, giant avenue bushes could possibly be uprooted, banana and papaya bushes felled, and enormous useless tree limbs blown off. Coastal crops, embankments, salt pans additionally could also be broken. While calling for complete suspension of fishing operations, the IMD suggested folks to stay indoors. Movement in motor boats and small ships is unsafe.

Gale-force winds

It warned that winds at the moment blowing at 55-65 km/hr, gusting to 75 km/hr over East-Central Arabian Sea would speed up to 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr (cyclone energy) off the South Maharashtra and Goa coasts this (Tuesday) afternoon and additional to 100-110 km/hr, gusting to 120 km/hr (extreme cyclone) alongside and off the Raigad, Mumbai, Palghar coasts by Wednesday morning.

Gale-force winds at 80-90 km/hr, gusting to 100 km/hr might prevail alongside and off Valsad and Navsari; Daman, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg in Maharashtra; and 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr alongside and off Surat, Bharuch, Dadra & Nagar Haveli from Wednesday midday. Squally winds (50-60 km/hr) gusting to 70 km/hr might prevail alongside and off the remaining districts of the South Gujarat coast.

Squally winds (50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr) might prevail over alongside and off the Karnataka-Goa coasts until Wednesday. The tough to very tough (wave heights of 8-13 ft) circumstances over the East-Central Arabian Sea would grow to be very tough to excessive (20-30 ft) this (Tuesday) afternoon; excessive to very excessive (30-40 ft) off the Maharashtra and Goa coasts by night; and really tough to excessive off the South Gujarat coast tomorrow.

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